David Wright has been talking to the press about his new approach again.
To summarize – he states that he has adapted to the larger dimensions of Citi Field by looking to “shoot t
he ball into the outfield for a basehit” instead of looking “for a pitch to drive out of the park.”
In this article, Larry Brooks (I had no idea he knew anything about baseball, maybe he should stick to shilling for the NHL Players Association) notes that Wright’s decrease in run production (60 RBIs, 82 runs scores) is not his fault because:
…the fact remains that Wright is batting .325 with runners in scoring position, 82 points higher than last year when he drove home a career-high 124 runs.”
Average with RISP is obviously has its role in a hitter’s run production. However, it also stands to reason that the type of hits he gets (i.e. those nice doubles, triples, and home runs) probably has something to do with it.
Now, in comparing Wright’s 60 RBIs 2009 to his 124 RBIs in 2008, Brooks notes that:
It is impossible to quantify what the absences of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado have meant to the third-baseman's RBI totals.
I disagree. First of all, in the Mets most common batting order from early April, Beltran and Delgado hit after Wright, so their absences shouldn’t have effected Wright’s RBI total that much, Secondly, there are several metrics of run production in the nerdy, sabermetric literature that measure a players estimated run production independent from what his teammates are doing. Here’s a nice explanation of where these stats come from.
One such “runs created” stat that Fangraphs reports is wRC. David Wright has, by this stat, created 84.3 runs in 2009, down from 130.1 in 2008. Of course, Wright has played in fewer games this season compared to last (because of his recent injury and the fact that the season isn’t over). But we can compare these numbers better by looking prorating Wright’s 84.3 runs created in 536 plate appearances in 2009 over 736 plate appearances (which is what he had in 2008). This would give the 2009 David Wright 115.7 runs created in a full season.
This means that over a full season, David Wright with his new “approach” would create 15 fewer runs than the old David Wright.These differences are not as stark as the difference in Wright’s RBI totals, so Larry Brooks does have a point that his RBI totals are a bit deceiving when it comes to assessing Wright’s overall performance this season.
However, based on the axiom that 10 runs created = 1 win added, Wright would be costing the Mets 1-2 wins over a full season.
While 1-2 wins is not an enormous amount, it is something (its the amount of wins that the Mets fell short of the playoffs last season for example).
More to come tomorrow re: Wright and whether the implications of his new “approach” as I try to figure out how the 2008 (old approach) David Wright would have fared hitting in Citi Field.
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