One Inning of Bobby Parnell

For those who thought Bobby Parnell might mix up his pitches now that he’s a starter – here are his pitches through one inning of work tonight:

The cluster of pitches in the top left of the graph are his fastballs (there are 26 dots there), while those 3 lonely pitches in the bottom right are his sliders. 

I hate to draw any conclusions after just one inning of work, but I’m pretty sure Bobby Parnell’s going to have a hard time finding success as a starter with this repertoire.

(Graph generated on Brooksbaseball.net)

Read More...

...Contract Post

The Thing About Bobby Parnell Becoming a Starting Pitcher…

… is that he still is a one-pitch pitcher.

According to Fangraphs, in 2009, 79.4% of Bobby Parnell’s pitches have been fastballs.

The following is a list of all of the starting pitchers in MLB who have thrown at least 100 innings and have thrown more than 79.4% of their pitches as fastballs:

1. Aaron Cook – 85%

That’s it. Mike Pelfrey clocks in at #2, throwing fastballs 78% of the time.

As a reliever, the limitations in Parnell’s repertoire are less unique.  Here are some pretty solid Major League relievers with a Parnell-eque fastball frequency:

• Matt Thornton – 90%
• David Aardsma – 88%
• Ronald Belisario – 84%
• Grant Balfour - 81%
• Jonathan Papelbon – 80%

So clearly, a pitcher like Parnell can have success in the pen, but guys like him are a much less commonly seen starting games.  The explanation for this seems obvious – it should be hard to make it through an opposing lineup 3 or 4 times relying on one good pitch.  One good pitch can get you through a few batters, but probably not 7 or 8 innings.

Unfortunately, the Mets took Parnell out of the minor leagues last season before he had finished perfecting his secondary pitches while starting in AAA.  They turned him into a reliever at the Major League level, and now he’s now spent a fairly decent year in the Mets bullpen. He’s been productive, but the Mets are clearly going nowhere.  Now, he’s back in the rotation and seems set up to fail.

If they wanted to turn this guy into a dominant reliever/closer, they should leave him in the ‘pen.  If they wanted him to ultimately start in the big leagues, then he should have started this season in AAA working on his slider and change up.  Just another example of lousy, short-sighted management by Omar Minaya and the Mets. 

Read More...

...Contract Post

A Couple of Rhetorical Questions About Tonight’s Mets/Cardinals Game

In case you’re relying on this website for all of your sports news and information, let me first inform you that the M ets found several new and excruciating ways to lose a baseball game tonight, losing to the Cardinals 12-7 in 10 innings.  For the record, according to Fangraphs, the Mets had a greater than 80% win expectancy from the bottom of the 5th until K-Rod blew it in the 9th, so this was a tough loss to take.  So, I’m not sure what exactly Mr. Met has to smile about.

I’m going to skip over Angel Pagan’s horrendous base running in the first inning, Johan Santana’s subpar performance, Luis Castillo injuring himself while walking into the dugout, and K-Rod’s terrible blown save in the ninth inning.  But, this is what I’m wondering:

First, how and why did Jerry Manuel decide to use his bullpen the way he did in the 10th inning?  Brian Stokes enters the game to start the inning to face Yadier Molina. Molina’s OPS is .739 vs. righties and .690 vs. lefties in 2009.  Stokes retires Molina on one pitch. Manuel then takes Stokes out and brings in Pedro Feliciano to face Rick Ankiel. Ankiel’s OPS is .727 vs. RHP and .612 vs. LHP, so a bit of an advantage to have a lefty face him, But, there was no body on base and Molina and Ankiel hit 6th and 7th in the Cardinals’ order and are both below average offensive players this season.  So why play lefty/righty with these guys up and waste one of your best relievers (Stokes) in the process?  This is a tie game in extra innings (which could go on for a while) and Manuel chooses to use a key cog in his bullpen for one batter to start an inning against the bottom of the order? Mindless.

Secondly, what was Daniel Murphy doing at the plate in the bottom of the ninth? He was up with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position and did this:

This is a guy who swings at pitches out of the zone 22.7% of the time (MLB average is 25%) and he chases two terrible pitches in a huge spot, including one that bounced? 

Thirdly, does Sean Green maybe want to consider trying to paint the corners  justa little bit against Albert Pujols?  Apparently not, because this is how Green pitched to Pujols down by 1 with the bases loaded in the 10th:

Really Sean? No interest in throwing a tough pitch to Pujols; not even on 0-2.  Nice work.  By the way, that pitch being labeled “in play” is not accurate, unless the left field stands are considered “in play.”

Read More...

...Contract Post

A Post About Oliver Perez and a Fish

On this blog, I’ve become a fan of comparing the short-term stats of current players to that of players from the past.  I know its not groundbreaking stuff, but it helps put what we’re seeing on the field today in perspective.

Here are a few examples:

• http://www.ihatethemets.net/2009/06/who-are-these-2009-mets.html
• http://www.ihatethemets.net/2009/06/who-is-this-david-wright.html
• http://www.ihatethemets.net/2009/05/case-against-jose-reyes-part-1.html

Baseball-Reference.com’s similarity scores do this in part, but they don’t make comparisons of individual seasons.  Because of that, they definitely can’t come up with something like this:

	GS	IP	Hits	Walks	K	WHIP	ERA
Oliver Perez 2009	10	48.2	52	47	44	2.034	7.03
Steve Trout’s Yankees Career	9	46.1	51	37	27	1.899	6.60

 

Pretty similar, although Perez’s walk rate is considerably worse than Trout’s was, even though Trout’s NY career was known for his losing the strike zone (he also had 9 wild pitches).  And the historical perspective here is important, because Steve Trout’s performance as a Yankee is considered to be the classic example of a pitcher completely losing it with a new team and of the Yankees series of disastrous pitching acquisitions in the ‘80s.  And Oliver Perez is worse.  Congrats Omar.

Here are some links that highlight the sad arc of Steve Trout’s time in NY:

• Yankees Get Trout in Deal With Cubs – NY Times 7/13/87
• Trout Wants a Ring Too – NY Times 7/18/87
• Yankees Pitching Tattered – NY Times 8/10/87
• Trout Traded – NY Times 12/23/87
• Unhappy Yankee Tradition – Pitching Deals of the 1980s Were Disappointing – NY Times 5/23/90

 

Read More...

...Contract Post