Like many others, I still don’t know what to make of Daniel Murphy. In this lost year for the Mets, despite the fact that so many veteran regulars have been hurt, he’s the only position player under age 25 who has seen significant playing time. 
Unfortunately, he hasn’t exactly risen to the occasion. After last year’s tantalizing .313 BA, .397 OBP, and .473 SLG in 151 plate appearances, Murphy’s performance has been much more pedestrian in 2009: .260 BA, .316 OBP, and .390 SLG in 425 plate appearances.
Part of this difference is definitely due to Murphy hitting into good luck in 2008 – he recorded a .382 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which has fallen to .288 in 2009. The overall BABIP for the NL in 2008 and 2009 has been .298 – so this season’s version of Murphy probably has been hitting into more average luck and probably therefore better represents the quality of ballplayer that he is right now.
Certainly a first baseman/left fielder who posts a 2009 Daniel Murphy-type stat line is not going to cut it on a good team and Murphy’s performance this season has, overall, been a disappointment.
However, I would argue that its definitely too early to give up on Murphy. One interesting use of Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index is to find other players who have had similar seasons to one another. In this case, I searched for other players in the expansion era who posted OBP and SLG% close to Murphy’s 2009 stat line during the first three seasons of their career and between the ages of 23-25. The point of this is to see what caliber of player has posted similar numbers in a season to Murphy’s during a similar point in their careers.
Here are the results:
| Name | Year | Age | OBP | SLG |
| Daniel Murphy | 2009 | 24 | .317 | .395 |
| Michael Young | 2002 | 25 | .308 | .382 |
| Chad Curtis | 1994 | 25 | .317 | .397 |
| Ed Sprague | 1993 | 25 | .310 | .386 |
| Von Hayes | 1982 | 23 | .310 | .389 |
| Carney Lansford | 1980 | 23 | .312 | .390 |
| Warren Cromartie | 1977 | 23 | .321 | .395 |
| Garry Maddox | 1974 | 24 | .328 | .398 |
| Jesus Alou | 1965 | 23 | .317 | .398 |
Admittedly, there are no hall-of-famers on that list. However, all 8 of the guys on that list played more than 1000 games in the major leagues. And Young, Sprague, Hayes, and Lansford were All-Stars at some point in their careers. And, as far as I can tell, this list is pretty complete – so, there haven’t been any total flame-outs who put together a season like the 2009 Daniel Murphy early in their careers. If he can end up somewhere between Ed Sprague and Carney Lansford, I think the Mets would be more than satisfied.
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1 comments:
I like your thinking but I have to disagree. I think this year's version of OhMurph is what you're going to see in the future. Keep in mind not just luck came into play here but that he had WAY more protection in the lineup. Look at Mark Texieria (which I know is not a good example but...) - when A Rod was injured he was doing crap, then they realized they had to give him better pitches, and now he's putting up MVP numbers. I think Mets fans in general cut him a lot of slack because he visibly busts his ass, but the fact is, if he weren't Daniel Murphy, Irish Boy Insurance Saleman or whatever that Queens-folk can identify, we'd be packing his bags and driving him to LaGuardia ourselves. I say trade him while his value is too high. I consider Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Krod the ONLY untouchables in 2010. Murph should be high on the list of those who are "touchable."
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