Fangraphs and Jeff Francoeur

I went on the Fangraphs website to do some more digging into Jeff Francoeur.  I checked their “terms of service” page and ’m still not sure whether is cool to reproduce their graphs on my blog, but I did learn something interesting about the Fangraphs service:

A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF USERS MAY EXPERIENCE EPILEPTIC SEIZURES WHEN EXPOSED TO CERTAIN LIGHT PATTERNS OR BACKGROUNDS ON A COMPUTER SCREEN OR WHILE USING THE SERVICE. CERTAIN CONDITIONS MAY INDUCE PREVIOUSLY UNDETECTED EPILEPTIC SYMPTOMS EVEN IN USERS WHO HAVE NO HISTORY OF PRIOR SEIZURES OR EPILEPSY. CONSULT YOUR PHYSICIAN IF YOU EXPERIENCE ANY OF THE FOLLOWING SYMPTOMS WHILE USING THE SERVICE -- DIZZINESS, ALTERED VISION, EYE OR MUSCLE TWITCHES, LOSS OF AWARENESS, DISORIENTATION, ANY INVOLUNTARY MOVEMENT, OR CONVULSIONS.

And its true, a quick look at Jeff Francoeur’s Fangraphs page, did in fact cause me to experience muscle twitches and a loss of awareness.  Here’s why – below I’ve copied some of Fangraphs’ famous graphs depicting Francoeur’s OBP , BABIP, and Walk% over his career. Pay particular attention to then “good” and “poor” ranges on the right side of each graph:

 

Note the following:

• Francoeurs’ OBP has left the “poor” range only twice in his career – during his brief but explosive rookie season and again, briefly, late in the 2007 season
• These upswings in his performance were completely based on luck – during these surges, his BABIP was exceptionally high.  (BABIP is known to depend, almost entirely, on luck).
• Francoeur’s  walk % has remained pretty flat over his career and remains square in the “poor” range.

So ultimately, the Mets’ traded for this guy, hoping that he can recapture the promise he showed as a rookie.  However, his amazing rookie season (and by extension, the positive side of his reputation as a ballplayer) is almost totally attributable to luck and random chance. 

Terrific.